Here is why Governor Shapiros 60% approval rating is both real and fragile: Pennsylvania voters like what they see, but they are not locked in. I ran a study with six Pennsylvania voters to find out what is working, what is not, and what would flip them to a Republican challenger.
The verdict? The I-95 story LANDS, but rural voters want the same energy on their roads. Boring competence beats charisma every time.
The Participants
Six participants from across Pennsylvania: a 16-year-old rural high schooler with Puerto Rican roots, a 52-year-old rural food service shift lead, an 18-year-old rural dad finishing his GED, a 41-year-old rural agricultural R&D project manager, and a 45-year-old Harrisburg sales coordinator.
Does the I-95 Bridge Story Resonate?
Meir, 16, rural PA: "Kinda, yeah. The I-95 thing is a solid flex because it is actual results, not blah-blah. But it also feels very Philly-core. Out here we are dodging potholes and school buses getting rattled to bits."
Cedric, 52, rural PA: "That I-95 fix was solid and fast. But that was Philly. Out here we sit on two-lane roads with busted shoulders and a bridge with a weight limit that sends the school bus around 20 extra minutes."
Cameron, 18, rural PA: "Yeah, it lands. But it also feels Philly-centric. Out here it turns into: cool, you can do that in the city, so why is my back road still cratered?"
What Has Shapiro Done Well?
Crisis response - The I-95 mess got handled fast and without a circus. He let the ops folks work.
Respect for trades - He cut degree requirements for state jobs. That tells me he values hands-on skills.
Broadband push - Money finally moved to rural builds. Our in-laws got fiber last fall.
Calm tone - In storms and the train derailment, he sounded like an adult. Less culture-war peacocking.
What Is Shapiro Getting Wrong?
School choice whiplash - He said he backed scholarships, then folded when the party heat hit. Trust break.
Philly-first vibe - Funding formulas still tilt toward big metros. Our roads need more than a photo op.
Healthcare costs - Keep climbing. Small clinics keep closing. No plan I can hear.
Minimum wage stuck - Folks working full time should not be stuck at the same number year after year.
What Would Flip Them to the Republican?
Meir, 16: "Pass a right-to-repair bill and lock in a rural broadband contract with enforceable milestones. Do those two and I would probably lean your way."
Cedric, 52: "Health care - keep what we got, make it cheaper. Work and wages - better floor for pay, sick time. Roads and internet - dates and miles."
Kristine, 45: "No new broad taxes. More cops on the street. Keep the grid steady. Fix I-83, fix potholes."
The Bottom Line
Shapiros 60% approval is earned through boring competence, but it is not locked in. The path to holding it: extend the I-95 energy to rural roads, address the school choice trust issue, and show up in February when heating bills are spiking.
View the complete study: Shapiro for Governor Voter Research Study