'Florida is red right now. Not a vibes problem, not a tweak-the-slogan problem. It's math and muscle.'
That's the uncomfortable truth from our Florida voter study. But here's what makes it interesting: the same voters who said statewide is tough also said local races are VERY much in play.
The Participants
Six Florida adults from Orlando to Jacksonville to St. Petersburg. Mix of professionals, urban dwellers, and community members. All engaged voters with varying political backgrounds.
Key Finding #1: Transportation Dominates
We expected abortion, immigration, or inflation. Instead, voter after voter brought up getting around.
Safe streets and sidewalks ('downtown feels like a speedway with landscaping')
Bus frequency and reliability ('SunRail clocks out by dinner')
Signal timing and pedestrian crossings
Permit times for infrastructure projects
Stop talking about shiny mega-projects and fix the boring stuff we touch daily: sidewalks, bike lanes, bus frequency.
Key Finding #2: Local Races Are Competitive
Even pessimistic voters about statewide races were optimistic about local impact.
School boards, city councils, county commissions, ballot questions - that's still in play. If you're only looking at governor, you're missing the opportunity.
Key insight: Florida Democrats may not win statewide in 2026, but they can build power locally.
Key Finding #3: The Val Demings Effect
When asked about messaging that stuck, one name kept coming up.
Val Demings looking straight into the camera talking about her record. No hero music, no fake drama - just receipts.
The lesson: boring specifics beat emotional appeals. Show your record.
What This Means for Florida Campaigns
Invest in local races, not just statewide miracles
Transportation and quality-of-life issues are underrated
Receipts and records beat slogans and inspiration
Permit times, dashboards, deadlines beat grand visions
