Florida has been trending Republican in recent elections, and Democrats are struggling to compete. But what do actual Florida voters think? What would it take for Democrats to have a shot in the Sunshine State?
I ran a study with six Florida voters from Orlando, St. Petersburg, Deerfield Beach, and rural areas. Their verdict? Stop the theater. Show receipts. Fix insurance and housing or do not bother asking for votes.
The Participants
Six participants representing the diversity of Florida: a risk analyst in Deerfield Beach (Colombian-American, Evangelical), a loan officer in St. Petersburg (bilingual, co-parenting a 9-year-old), a property manager in rural Florida, a retired electrical contractor in rural Florida, a healthcare administrator in Orlando, and an unemployed adult in rural Florida with deep knowledge of grid infrastructure.
What united them? A profound exhaustion with slogans, culture-war noise, and promises that never turn into line items they can actually see on their bills.
The Issues That Will Decide 2026
When I asked participants what issues would most influence their vote, the answers converged around one overwhelming theme: affordability.
Property insurance - "That bill is bigger than my old truck note and it shows up with its hand out like clockwork." Premiums, deductibles, carrier instability, and the fraud that drives it all.
Housing costs - mortgage payments, HOA fees, rent increases, and the permitting maze that keeps supply low
Hurricane resilience - grid hardening, drainage, flood mitigation, and the question everyone asks: "What happens when the next Cat 3 hits?"
Healthcare access - ED boarding, staffing shortages, and insurance networks that are "a maze I do not want to solve"
Robert from St. Petersburg summed up the insurance crisis: "My premium has crept up hard the last couple years. I have got a low fixed-rate mortgage from the refi, but insurance and taxes are what punch my budget. As a loan officer, I watch deals die because insurance quotes blow up the debt-to-income ratio."
Justin from Deerfield Beach was blunt: "My housing line is flirting with 3k on the ugly months. Groceries are up, FPL stings when it is 31 degrees and sticky. If a candidate brings line-item plans with dates and targets, cool, I am in. If it is just affordability on a bumper sticker, hard pass."
Key insight: Property insurance is not just an issue in Florida - it is THE issue. Multiple participants cited it as the single most important factor in their vote.
What Democrats Need to Do Differently
I asked participants directly: What would the Democratic Party need to do to compete in Florida? The answers were brutally honest:
Stop the Culture-War Detours
"Florida voters want potholes fixed and insurance down, not a thread war with some influencer." Every single participant mentioned culture-war fatigue. The message: lead with infrastructure, safety, and household costs, not national drama.
Show Receipts, Not Slogans
Insurance stability with timelines - "Concrete steps on reinsurance, fraud enforcement, and how premiums come down. Dates and targets."
More housing fast - "By-right duplexes and ADUs near jobs and schools, shot-clock on permits, state incentives tied to local zoning reform."
Stop nickel-and-diming - "Rein in junk fees and surprise HOA nonsense. Keep millage stable."
Transport that works - "Frequent, reliable SunRail and bus where people live and work. Spare me the shiny ribbon-cuttings that move nobody."
Quarterly Scorecards
Donnell from Orlando captured the demand for accountability: "If Democrats show me a boringly competent, measurable plan that makes my weekday smoother and hurricane season less stressful, I will give them a look. If it is just outrage, hashtags, and think-piece vocabulary, hard pass."
Key insight: Florida voters are not ideologically opposed to Democrats. They are opposed to vague promises. The opportunity is real for a party that can deliver specific, measurable commitments.
The Affordability Question
I asked participants directly: Would a candidate focused on affordability solutions earn your vote? The answers revealed both opportunity and skepticism:
Jeffrey from rural Florida: "Would I vote for a candidate who hits affordability head-on? Yes, if they bring specifics and math, not bumper stickers. Property insurance: stop the roofing circus, make mitigation discounts real, and hold carriers and adjusters to the same straight standard. Housing: build where it is high and dry, cut the permit runaround. If I see a real plan I can balance on a spreadsheet, with dates, dollar ranges, and who gets held to account, they can earn my vote."
Becky from rural Florida laid out her checklist: "A candidate talking affordability only gets my vote if they put real numbers and dates on it. Home insurance: more carriers in the state, real mitigation discounts that show up on the bill. Auto insurance: kill the games, end no-fault or fix PIP. Permits and fees: 10-day permit clocks. Trades pipeline: fund short trade certs in high school."
Key insight: Affordability is a winning message in Florida - but only if backed by specific, measurable commitments. Voters have heard enough slogans.
What This Means for 2026 Campaigns
If you are advising a campaign in Florida, here is what this research reveals:
Property insurance is the ballot issue. Any candidate who cannot speak fluently about reinsurance, fraud enforcement, and mitigation credits is not serious.
Culture-war messages are vote-losers. Every participant mentioned exhaustion with national drama. Lead with infrastructure and costs.
Rural voters have specific demands. Drainage, broadband, EMS response times, volunteer fire funding - these are vote-deciders, not afterthoughts.
Bilingual outreach matters. "Spanish outreach without cringe" was a direct request. WhatsApp groups, town halls in community centers, and local radio.
Dashboards beat slogans. Voters want public tracking of promises, with quarterly updates. If you cannot show metrics, they assume you are hiding failure.
The Bottom Line
Florida voters are not impossible to reach. They are impossible to fool. The path to their votes runs through Excel spreadsheets, not press conferences.
As Franklin from rural Florida put it: "Stop selling vibes and start showing receipts. If you can deliver concrete upgrades I can see from the road and on my bill, own your mistakes in daylight, and keep critical systems reliable when the Gulf boils - then I will listen."
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