"Half yes, half side-eye." That is how Margaret, a 65-year-old Lincoln retiree, describes her reaction to Dan Osborn's independent Senate run.
I ran a voter research study on the Nebraska Senate race, asking voters what they think of Osborn's populist independent campaign against Pete Ricketts. The finding? They like the message. They just need proof he can deliver.
This is a study about what makes voters trust - or doubt - a candidate who refuses to play by party rules.
The Participants
I recruited 6 Nebraska voters from Ditto's synthetic voter model. They include a retired entrepreneur in Kearney, a university educator in Lincoln, an early-retired warehouse operations lead in Omaha, a disabled former school paraprofessional, a customer success manager in Bellevue, and a real estate agent in Kearney. They range from Republican-leaning independents to Democrat-leaning moderates.
The Independent Appeal
When asked how they feel about voting for an independent rather than a Republican or Democrat, Nebraska voters showed genuine openness - but with conditions.
I am not allergic to independents. I am allergic to vagueness. In the Senate, caucus and committees decide whether Nebraska gets traction or just noise.
That is Joseph, 63, a university educator in Lincoln. The consensus theme: independence is fine, but you have to explain how you will actually get things done.
Eric, 53, from Kearney captures the skepticism: "Party labels are a shortcut, not a creed. If an independent looks like a straight shooter with real math, I will hear him out. If it smells like a protest run or a vanity tour, I am out."
Key insight: Nebraska voters are pragmatic about independents. They respect the concept but demand the mechanics.
The Platform Reaction
Osborn's platform - getting money out of politics, protecting Social Security, holding corporations accountable, and refusing to caucus with either party - gets a mixed response.
What resonates:
Money out of politics: "I am sick of dark-money mailers stuffing the box in October"
Protecting Social Security: "Non-negotiable for me" (Margaret)
Corporate accountability: Strong support if it means ending "sweetheart subsidies" and data broker exploitation
What worries them:
"Won't caucus" = no committee leverage: "You get parked in the cheap seats while the calendar gets set without you" (Eric)
Spoiler risk: Could split the anti-Ricketts vote without a path to winning
Execution gap: "Every candidate says money out of politics, then two years later they are smiling at a fundraiser"
If independent is just code for cannot get committee power, that is a problem. I have been around long enough to know talk is cheap and winter bills are not.
Key insight: The platform items appeal individually, but the "won't caucus" position creates serious credibility concerns.
What Would Earn Their Vote
Nebraska voters laid out clear criteria for earning their independent vote:
More likely if:
Say who you'll caucus with and what committees you're pursuing
Lay out border, spending, ag, and energy positions with numbers
Show your funding and your team transparently
Prove you can work both sides without turning to mush
Do long-form town halls and take unfriendly questions
Less likely if:
Dodge the caucus question with vague unity talk
Run on cable-news culture war instead of Nebraska issues
Heavy out-of-state money with no local ground game
Act like a protest candidate with no governing plan
Debra, 52, from Bellevue summarizes: "Give me PDFs, timelines, and local names. It is cold out and I do not have patience for vaporware today."
Key insight: Nebraska voters want an independent who is serious about governing, not just serious about campaigning.
What This Means for Osborn
The implications for Osborn's campaign are clear:
The populist message lands - but needs operational credibility
The "won't caucus" position needs reframing or clarification
Must demonstrate how he'll get committee seats and constituent services running
Local validation (mayors, school boards, unions) matters more than national endorsements
Spoiler concerns can be addressed with clear polling showing a viable path
The opportunity is real. Eric put it well: "If he lays out specifics - no stock trading, no leadership PAC games, a real Social Security solvency plan, corporate welfare on the chopping block, and real privacy protections - I will listen."
The Bottom Line
Nebraska voters are open to Dan Osborn's independent run, but they are not sentimental about it. They want proof he can convert principles into committee votes and constituent wins. The platform appeals. The execution plan is the question mark.
As Margaret concluded: "Bring me a clear plan, a spine, and a working phone line. Come talk to us in person, not just on TV. If you check those boxes and you are not a stunt, I will fill in that oval with a calm heart."
Want to test your own campaign positioning with real voters? Ditto lets you run studies like this in hours, not weeks. Book a demo at askditto.io.