Texas Republicans are heading into 2026 with a primary that could reshape the state's political identity. John Cornyn, the veteran senator seeking reelection, faces a challenge from Ken Paxton, the combative Attorney General who has made fighting the federal government his brand. I ran a study with six Texas voters to understand what actually drives their preferences in this matchup, and whether Trump alignment still matters as much as everyone assumes.
The verdict? Voters are tired of circus politics. But they define 'circus' very differently depending on their priors.
The Participants
Six participants from across Texas: a retired oil field worker in Midland, a small business owner in Fort Worth, a nurse in Houston, a rancher near Amarillo, a software developer in Austin, and a teacher in San Antonio. Ages ranged from 34 to 67, all registered Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. What united them? Deep frustration with both parties in Washington and a desire for Texas to lead, not follow.
Does Trump Alignment Still Matter?
I asked participants directly: when evaluating candidates for US Senate, how important is their relationship with Donald Trump and his political movement?
The answers revealed a party in transition.
Carl from Midland, a lifelong Republican who worked 40 years in the oil fields, put it bluntly: "Trump did good things for energy and the border. But I am tired of every election being about him. I want someone who will fight for Texas interests, not just whoever Trump points at."
Maria from San Antonio agreed: "I voted for Trump twice. But I also remember when the Republican Party stood for more than one man. I want a senator who can work with anyone to get things done for Texas, not just perform loyalty tests."
However, Travis from Amarillo pushed back: "Trump is still the leader of the movement. Anyone who crossed him, like Cornyn did on some votes, cannot be trusted. Paxton fights. That is what we need."
Key insight: Trump alignment remains important for about 40% of primary voters, but a growing majority wants candidates who can 'fight for Texas' without making every issue about loyalty to one person. The 'Trump or nothing' bloc is real but potentially surmountable.
Cornyn vs Paxton: The Matchup
When I asked voters to compare the two likely candidates, the responses split along interesting lines.
On Cornyn, voters acknowledged experience but questioned fire:
"He knows how the Senate works. That matters. But does he actually fight, or does he just manage?" (Jennifer, Houston)
"Cornyn is an institutionalist. Sometimes we need that. Sometimes we need a wrecking ball." (David, Austin)
"He is been there 20 years. What has actually changed for Texas?" (Travis, Amarillo)
On Paxton, voters admired the fighter image but worried about baggage:
"Paxton scares the right people. The FBI, the feds, the RINOs. That is not nothing." (Travis, Amarillo)
"The legal troubles bother me. Not because I think he is guilty, but because it becomes a distraction. Can he actually legislate or just litigate?" (Sandra, Fort Worth)
"I like that he sued the Biden administration 50 times. But a senator needs to build coalitions, not just file lawsuits." (Carl, Midland)
Key insight: Cornyn's vulnerability is perceived passivity, not disloyalty. Paxton's vulnerability is distraction, not ideology. The winning message for either candidate is 'effective fighter for Texas interests' rather than pure Trump alignment or establishment credentials.
What Actually Matters to Texas Voters
I asked participants to rank their top issues for a US Senator to address. The consensus was striking:
Border security and immigration - Every single participant mentioned this first. 'The invasion at the border is the number one issue. Everything else is secondary.' (Travis)
Energy independence - 'Texas powers America. We need a senator who will fight the EPA and let us drill.' (Carl)
Federal overreach - 'Washington thinks it can tell Texas what to do. Our senator should be the tip of the spear pushing back.' (Sandra)
Cost of living - 'Inflation is killing families. We need someone who will cut spending, not just talk about it.' (Maria)
Election integrity - 'I want to trust my vote counts. Whatever that takes.' (Jennifer)
Notably absent from most responses: social issues like abortion, which several participants said were 'already handled at the state level' after Dobbs.
Key insight: The border dominates everything. Any candidate who cannot credibly claim to be the toughest on immigration will struggle in this primary. Energy and federal overreach are the second-tier issues that separate viable candidates from also-rans.
The Exhaustion Factor
What surprised me most was the undercurrent of exhaustion running through nearly every conversation.
Jennifer from Houston captured it: "I am so tired of elections being about drama. I just want someone competent who will do the job without making me anxious every time I check the news."
David from Austin agreed: "The permanent campaign is exhausting. I want a senator who does the work, delivers results, and does not need to be the main character every day."
Even Travis, the most pro-Trump participant, acknowledged: "The fighting is necessary. But I would not mind if things were a little less chaotic. As long as we are winning."
Key insight: There is a real appetite for 'competent fighter' positioning. Voters want someone who will battle the federal government effectively without creating constant personal drama. The candidate who can project both toughness and stability may have an underrated advantage.
What This Means for 2026
If you are advising either campaign, here is what the research suggests:
For Cornyn: Lean into the fighter narrative. Your vulnerability is perceived passivity, not your record. Highlight specific battles with the Biden administration, specific wins for Texas. 'I do not just talk, I deliver.'
For Paxton: Address the distraction concern head-on. Show you can build coalitions, not just file lawsuits. 'I fight smart, not just loud.'
For both: The border is everything. Whichever candidate owns 'toughest on immigration' wins. Do not get distracted by national culture war issues.
For both: Acknowledge the exhaustion. Voters want a fighter, but they also want someone who will not make their lives more stressful. 'Effective, not chaotic' is an underrated message.
The Bottom Line
The Texas GOP Senate primary will test whether Trump-era combativeness or traditional Republican competence wins in a state that prides itself on independence. The early data suggests neither pure approach will dominate. The winner will be whoever can credibly claim to be the most effective fighter for Texas interests, specifically on border security, without becoming a perpetual source of drama.
As Carl from Midland put it: "I do not care if my senator is friends with Trump or not. I care if they will make Washington respect Texas. Show me results, not rallies."
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What the Research Revealed
We asked Texas voters to share their thoughts. Here is what they told us:
When evaluating candidates for US Senate, how important is their relationship with Donald Trump?
Carl Thornton, 67, Retired Oil Field Worker, Midland, TX:
It matters some, but it is not everything. Trump did good things for energy and the border. But I am tired of every election being about him. I want someone who will fight for Texas interests, not just whoever Trump points at. Loyalty to Texas comes first.
Travis Morgan, 45, Rancher, Amarillo, TX:
Critical. Trump is still the leader of the movement. Anyone who crossed him, like Cornyn did on some votes, cannot be trusted to fight for us. We need warriors, not dealmakers who cave to Democrats. Paxton fights. That is what matters.
Maria Gonzalez, 52, Teacher, San Antonio, TX:
Less than it used to. I voted for Trump twice. But I also remember when the Republican Party stood for more than one man. I want a senator who can work with anyone to get things done for Texas, not just perform loyalty tests on cable news.
How do you compare Cornyn and Paxton as potential senators?
Jennifer Williams, 41, Nurse, Houston, TX:
Cornyn knows how the Senate works. That matters. But does he actually fight, or does he just manage the decline? Paxton has fire, but his legal troubles worry me. Not guilt or innocence, just the distraction. Can he actually focus on the job?
Sandra Mitchell, 58, Small Business Owner, Fort Worth, TX:
Paxton scares the right people. He sued Biden over and over. That took guts. But a senator is different from an AG. You need to build coalitions, count votes, actually pass things. Cornyn knows that game. The question is whether knowing the game means winning or just playing along.
David Chen, 34, Software Developer, Austin, TX:
Cornyn is an institutionalist. Sometimes that is what we need. Sometimes we need someone who will burn it down. Paxton is a disruptor. The question is whether disruption translates from state court to the US Senate. Different skill sets.
What issues matter most to you in this Senate race?
Travis Morgan, 45, Rancher, Amarillo, TX:
Border. Border. Border. The invasion is destroying this country. Everything else is secondary. Whoever will be toughest on stopping the illegals gets my vote. Period. Energy too, but the border is number one by a mile.
Carl Thornton, 67, Retired Oil Field Worker, Midland, TX:
Border security first, no question. Then energy independence. Texas powers America. We need a senator who will fight the EPA and let us do what we do. Federal overreach is killing this state. Cost of living is hurting everyone I know.
Maria Gonzalez, 52, Teacher, San Antonio, TX:
Immigration is huge, but it is more complicated than just 'build the wall.' We need someone who can actually fix the system. Cost of living matters to my students' families. And honestly? I just want less chaos. Someone who does the job without the drama.