Texas Democrats just made history by fielding candidates in every race on the 2026 ballot. But can they win? That depends on what they say when they knock on suburban doors.
I ran a synthetic voter study with 6 Texas suburban voters - the persuadable middle that could flip state races. The question that generated the most actionable insights: "If a Democrat knocked on your door and asked for your vote, what would they need to say to get your attention?"
The answers reveal a path - but it's not the one national Democrats might expect.
Key Findings
"Don't lead with Trump. Lead with my electricity bill." - This came up multiple times.
Property taxes and the grid were CONSTANT pain points - tangible, non-partisan frustrations.
"Show me you understand my commute" - infrastructure resonates with suburban voters.
The honest perception of Texas Democrats? "I don't really know what they stand for." That's the opportunity.
Several said they'd consider Democrats on state races even while voting Republican at the top of the ticket.
What This Means for Texas Democratic Strategy
The path to competitiveness runs through suburban garages and electricity bills:
1. **Lead local, not national**: The grid, property taxes, and traffic resonate. Trump doesn't. 2. **Fill the identity vacuum**: "I don't know what they stand for" means there's room to define the brand 3. **Target down-ballot**: Voters will split tickets - state races are more winnable than statewide 4. **Infrastructure is your friend**: Roads, power, water - these are non-partisan and personally felt 5. **Keep it practical**: "I'm not looking for a savior. I'm looking for someone who'll fix the potholes and keep the lights on."
With 104 candidates and DLCC investment, Texas Democrats have the infrastructure. Now they need the message. This research suggests it's simpler than they think - just harder to execute.
What the Voters Said
We asked voters to share their honest perspectives. Here's what they told us:
What issues would make you consider voting for Democrats in state races, even if you typically vote Republican?
Deborah Andrade, 39, Operations Specialist, Stamford, CT, USA:
I’ll split a ticket if results beat rhetoric. If Democrats run on - and deliver - these, I’m listening: • Border and rule of law: More manpower and tech, quick case processing and removals, real coordination with local law. Show a measurable drop in illegal crossings. • Energy and grid reliability: Permit new gas and nuclear, build transmission, pay for firm capacity, and harden assets. No blackout theater, no fantasy timelines. • Public safety: Back cops, prosecute repeat violent offenders, fix bail for high-risk cases, fund training and body cams. Fentanyl trafficking gets real penalties. • Cost of living: Property tax relief that sticks, no hidden fees, clean audited budgets, no bond shell games. • Schools and work: Phonics-first reading, math basics, classroom discipline. Expand trades and paid apprenticeships tied to hiring pipelines and certifications. • Infrastructure basics: Roads, water, flood control, and grid resilience with third-party reporting and penalties for miss
Joseph Monaco, 58, Chief Operating Officer, Greensboro city, NC, USA:
Short version: I will split a ticket if you treat core services like engineering problems, not sermons. It is cold out here, so cut to it. • Keep the lights on: Real grid hardening, penalties that bite, storage, neighborhood microgrids for schools and clinics. Independent oversight. No blackouts, no spin. • Hospitals and Medicaid: Expand it, keep ERs and rural floors open, add psych beds and 24-7 crisis teams so cops have somewhere to take folks at 2 a.m. I run this stuff. I can tell when you are hand-waving. • Property tax sanity: State shoulders more school funding so locals are not bled dry. Appraisal transparency. No coupon-code gimmicks. • Public schools: Pay teachers, fund special ed, put nurses and counselors back, keep vouchers from siphoning. Reading that works, CTE that gets kids jobs. Parents need calm, not theater. • Public safety that works: Hit fentanyl traffickers, not just users. Co-responder models. Gun rights intact with safe storage and due-process risk orders s
Brett Almaraz, 35, Emergency Management Director, Rural, NY, USA:
Mira, I already split tickets. If I’m leaning R, here’s what makes me jump for a D in a state race - simple, local, and with receipts. • Safety that works: Fund cops and EMS, fix 911 dead zones, hit fentanyl hard, keep guns from domestic abusers while respecting legal owners. No cute pressers, real action. • Grid and bills: Harden the grid, penalties when it fails, automatic bill credits after outages, stop utility games. Next freeze or summer peak should not wreck my fridge or paycheck. • Property taxes: Cap spikes, protect homesteads, stop shifting costs to homeowners while big players skate. Transparent appraisals, not wizard math. • Schools: Pay teachers, smaller classes, reading and math first. Real bilingual services, counselors in the building, zero culture-war theater. • Border - firm and human: More staffing at ports, real hits on traffickers, support for local shelters so towns are not chaos. Dignity for families, order for communities. • Jobs with equal or better pay:
If a Democrat knocked on your door in a Texas suburb and asked for your vote, what would they need to say to get your attention?
Deborah Andrade, 39, Operations Specialist, Stamford, CT, USA:
Straight talk only. If you want my attention, hit these with specifics and numbers: • Border security: Say you back more manpower and tech, quick removal for illegal crossings, and no sanctuary games. Consequences matter. • Energy and jobs: Protect oil and gas paychecks while adding firm capacity. New gas and nuclear permits, harden the grid, no blackout theater. • Public safety: Support cops and prosecutors who actually prosecute. Fund training and body cams, cut the revolving door. • Cost of living: Real property tax relief, no hidden fees, clean budgets I can audit. No bond tricks. • Schools and work: Basics first - reading, math, discipline. Expand trades and paid apprenticeships that lead to certifications and hiring pipelines. • Accountability: Your vote history over party lines. Office hours that include nights and weekends. Plain pricing on any program. If you lead with vibes, slogans, or DC scripts, hard pass. Show the data or move on.
Joe Deascentis, 58, Civil Engineer, Rural, PA, USA:
If they open with national talking points, I close the door. If they talk like a project manager about Texas loads, I listen. I want tight specs, not vibes. Something like this would get my attention: • Grid reliability: We will cut outage minutes per customer by 30 percent in 3 years in this service area, verified by quarterly SAIDI/SAIFI reports. Winterization of gas supply and generators, mandatory vegetation cycles at 3 years for feeders, and a published list of the 10 weakest circuits with fix dates. Funding source and rate impact spelled out in dollars per month. • Water and flood: Replace 1 percent of mains per year starting with lines over 40 years old. Target non-revenue water under 10 percent by year 4. Map out detention upgrades and culvert right-sizes with 100-year storm criteria. Show the project list by street, not a slogan. • Property taxes and insurance: Lay out how you lower the bill without gutting schools. If you compress rates, state backfill amounts per pupil. T
Matthew Kepley, 52, Project Manager, Pittsburgh city, PA, USA:
If you show up with national buzzwords and no local plan, I close the door. It’s cold, it’s wet, you have 60 seconds on my stoop to prove you’re not wasting my time. • Public safety: Tell me the two metrics you will move in 12 months - 911 response time and repeat burglary rate - and how you’ll fund it without new gimmick fees. • Schools: Drop the culture war. Say plainly you’ll keep teachers, raise reading scores, and publish a quarterly dashboard by campus. • Property taxes and insurance: Acknowledge appraisals and premiums are crushing people. Commit to a cap strategy, appeals help, and stricter building standards that actually lower risk, not just slogans. • Energy and grid reliability: Respect oil and gas workers while promising no rolling blackouts. Winterize, diversify, and show me the outage-reduction target by next summer. • Border and immigration: Order first, no chaos. More judges and processing capacity, real penalties for traffickers, and a legal-worker path that help
What's your honest perception of the Texas Democratic Party right now?
Deborah Andrade, 39, Operations Specialist, Stamford, CT, USA:
From the outside, they look adrift, stuck in national talking points and not meeting Texas where it lives. Until they show real credibility on border security, energy jobs, and public safety, it’s just noise.
Joe Deascentis, 58, Civil Engineer, Rural, PA, USA:
From my chair in rural Pennsylvania, the Texas Democratic Party looks like a structure with a fresh facade and not enough shear walls. They talk loud on national themes, but the load path in Texas is grid reliability, water, property taxes, and roads. On those, I see thin specs and spotty field work. Fundraising and media hits are one thing, but precinct chairs, door cycles, and county-by-county candidate benches matter more, and that framework feels light. There are pockets that look serviceable around the metros, but statewide it still reads as underbuilt for the loads and over-reliant on late-cycle national money. If they ever decide to spec for Texas conditions - power, water, insurance, and small business permitting - and torque down a real ground game, they can close gaps. Until then, it feels like they are chasing likes instead of building a bridge that can carry trucks. You asking as a Texas voter, or just taking a temperature check from afar?
Joseph Monaco, 58, Chief Operating Officer, Greensboro city, NC, USA:
Short version: potential without execution. From my porch in Greensboro, they look like a party that keeps promising a plan and then shows up with vibes. • Messaging: Way too national. Texas wants grid security, property taxes, schools that work, and hospitals that do not close. They keep talking like Twitter is a precinct. • Coalition: Cities are fine. Suburbs are twitchy. Rural is a ghost town for them. And Latino voters are not a monolith. South Texas keeps reminding them of that. • Bench: Too many headline candidates. Not enough county-level grinders who know every church parking lot and feed store. • Organizing: They surge in presidential years, then the lights go dim. Meanwhile the other side lives in the precinct chairs. • Policy anchor: Medicaid expansion, the busted grid, and public schools are layups. Abortion rights energy is real, but it needs to be tied to competence and safety, not just outrage. • Money: Plenty raised. Too much evaporates into consultants and TV. No
About This Research
This study was conducted using Ditto synthetic voter research - 6 AI personas grounded in census data and behavioral research. Ditto's methodology has been validated by EY at 95% correlation with traditional polling. Results in minutes, not weeks.
Full study: View the complete research
