Michigan in 2026 is a lot. You have got a wide-open governor's race, a Senate contest, a constitutional convention question that nobody asked for, and an economy that voters describe as 'death by a thousand cuts.' When we ran a voter research study with 10 synthetic Michigan voters, the first thing that became clear is that voters have a very strong opinion about which race matters most. And it is not the one you might think.
This study used Ditto's synthetic voter research platform - 10 AI personas modelled on Michigan voter demographics, 7 questions each, covering the governor's race, Senate, constitutional convention, the auto industry, and what voters actually want from candidates in 2026.
The Governor's Race Trumps Everything
We asked voters to rank the races and issues that matter most in 2026, and the governor's race dominated. Not the Senate race. Not the constitutional convention. Not national politics. The governor's mansion is what Michigan voters are focused on, and they are focused on it with intensity.
The reasoning was practical:
"The governor signs the bills. The governor sets the tone. That is where the power is."
"Washington is gridlocked anyway. At least the governor can actually do things."
"I care about my roads, my schools, and my water. The governor handles those."
For campaigns and donors, this is a clear signal: resources allocated to the governor's race will have the highest voter engagement return. The Senate race matters, but voters are telling you where their heads and hearts are.
Constitutional Convention: Hard No
Michigan voters were asked about the prospect of a constitutional convention, and the response was overwhelming and uniform: absolutely not.
"A constitutional convention right now would be like lighting a match in a dry barn. The current political climate is too volatile for that kind of rewrite."
Voter after voter expressed the same concern: in today's polarised environment, opening up the constitution is too risky. They do not trust either party to rewrite foundational law without gaming it for partisan advantage. The metaphors were vivid - 'match in a dry barn,' 'opening Pandora\'s box,' 'letting the foxes redesign the henhouse.'
Any candidate who campaigns on or near a constitutional convention should know that this is a losing position with voters across the spectrum. It is one of the rare issues where Michigan voters are united: now is not the time.
The Economy: Death by a Thousand Cuts
Michigan voters describe their economic reality with a specificity that should concern every campaign strategist in the state. This is not generalised anxiety. It is itemised.
"My car insurance went up 25%. My rent went up 15%. My pay went up 2%. Do the maths."
"I am one unexpected bill away from real trouble, and I have a decent job"
"Everything costs more. Nothing pays more. That is the whole story."
The phrase 'death by a thousand cuts' captures it perfectly. It is not one catastrophic event - it is the relentless accumulation of small cost increases that together make daily life feel precarious. Voters do not want big economic speeches. They want someone who can name the cuts and explain how they will stop each one.
EVs: Pro-Transition, Anti-Burn-the-Workers
Michigan's relationship with the auto industry makes the EV transition one of the most sensitive issues in the state. Voters were surprisingly nuanced. They are not anti-EV. In fact, most were pro-transition. What they are against is a transition that leaves autoworkers behind.
"I am fine with EVs. I am not fine with pretending the people who build transmissions will magically become battery technicians without serious retraining and support."
Voters want to see:
Retraining programmes with real job placement - not certificates that lead nowhere
Timeline transparency - when are plants converting, and what happens to current workers?
Local supply chain investment - if Michigan is building EVs, Michigan should be building EV parts
Union involvement in the transition - workers need a seat at the table, not a memo
This is a massive opportunity for candidates who can thread the needle: pro-EV, pro-worker, pro-Michigan manufacturing. The voters are already there. They just need a candidate who is.
'Boring Competence with Receipts'
Like Wisconsin, Michigan voters are not looking for charisma in 2026. They are looking for competence. And not just competence - provable competence. They want receipts.
"If you cannot show your work with deadlines, I am out. I have had enough promises without proof."
This was the throughline of the entire study. Every issue - the economy, EVs, healthcare, infrastructure - came back to the same demand: show me what you have done, show me what you will do, and show me when I will see the results. Abstract governance is over. Voters want dashboards, not speeches.
How We Ran This Study
This study used Ditto's synthetic voter research platform. We recruited 10 AI personas modelled on Michigan voter demographics - auto industry workers, suburban professionals, rural landowners, and urban progressives. Each persona answered 7 open-ended questions about the governor's race, Senate contest, constitutional convention, EV transition, and economic priorities. The full study ran in under two hours. For campaign strategists who need real voter language and real insights without the six-figure price tag of traditional research, this is the tool.
What This Means for 2026
Prioritise the governor's race. Voters are. Your resources should reflect that.
Stay away from the constitutional convention. There is no upside. Voters see it as dangerous and unnecessary.
Get granular on the economy. Name the cuts. Name the fixes. Attach timelines.
Thread the EV needle carefully. Pro-transition, pro-worker. No shortcuts, no hand-waving.
Lead with receipts. Every promise needs proof. Every plan needs a deadline. Voters are done with trust - they want verification.
The full study is live with every voter response and insight ready to explore. Explore the full Michigan voter study here.
If you are running a campaign in Michigan - governor, Senate, state legislature, anything - drop me a line. We can build a study for your race in hours. Real voters, real language, real priorities.