The 2026 Republican primaries will test a fundamental tension in the GOP coalition: fiscal conservatism versus Trump loyalty. Which matters more to primary voters?
I ran a synthetic voter study with 6 Republican primary voters who prioritize fiscal issues. The question that revealed the most: "In a Republican primary, what's MORE important - a candidate's fiscal conservatism record or their loyalty to Trump?"
The results? Not a clean sweep either way. And that tension is precisely where 2026 primaries will be won or lost.
Key Findings
Several voters said fiscal record SHOULD matter more, but acknowledged Trump endorsement carries practical weight.
"I want someone who'll actually cut spending, not just talk about it" - fiscal voters want results, not rhetoric.
Inflation and government debt were the top economic concerns - tangible impacts beat ideology.
Club for Growth-style endorsements matter to the fiscally-focused segment: "If they've done the homework on spending records, I'll listen."
What This Means for 2026 Primary Strategy
There's a lane for fiscal-first candidates, but it requires threading a needle:
1. **Don't be perceived as anti-Trump**: Voters tired of spending still won't back someone seen as opposing the movement 2. **Lead with results**: Specific spending cuts, debt reduction plans, and inflation solutions beat abstract conservatism 3. **Endorsement strategy matters**: Club for Growth ratings signal credibility to fiscal-focused voters 4. **Frame fiscal discipline as MAGA-compatible**: Wasteful spending hurts the Trump agenda too
The real insight: fiscal conservatism isn't dead in the GOP - it's just looking for candidates who can deliver results without triggering movement loyalty tests.
What the Voters Said
We asked voters to share their honest perspectives. Here's what they told us:
What's your biggest economic concern heading into 2026? What should Republican candidates focus on?
Erica Gutierrez, 43, Stay-at-Home Parent, Rural, GA, USA:
Biggest concern: the power bill and groceries. They go up. Jorge’s hours move with rain. One car or doctor bill and we break the month. What they should focus on: • Keep light and gas affordable. Stop rate hikes. No junk fees. • Lower food basics. Work with local stores and trucks. Not slogans. • No cuts to school, clinic, safety checks, or roads. • Health costs: clear prices. No surprise bills. More community clinics. • Steady jobs: keep local road and school projects moving. Pay small crews on time. • Simple budgets. Show numbers. No new debt. Talk less on TV. Show the bill. If my monthly total drops, say how much. If not, I do not care.
Joseph Bertelsman, 37, Manufacturing Engineer, Raleigh city, NC, USA:
Biggest worry is take-home pay getting chewed up while input costs keep creeping. Groceries, premiums, power, and then a trade flare-up hits resin and fasteners and my overtime gets thin. I need steady, not spicy. What Republicans should focus on: • Healthcare costs - bring premiums and deductibles down. Cut the games. Make prices clear. • Stable energy - build what we need and keep bills predictable so shops can plan. • Skills pipeline - real apprenticeships and shop classes that lead to a badge and a paycheck. • Smart trade - hit cheaters, but stop blanket tariffs that jack up parts and kill margins. • Childcare and aftercare - make it pencil out for shift workers so folks can actually take shifts. • No shutdowns - pass budgets on time. Set the jig and run the part. Quit the drama. • Faster permits - one clear path to build plants and roads, and then leave the rules put. Talk straight, show your torque spec, and skip the TV fights. Protect paychecks and keep the line running
Omar Murphy, 39, Medical Assistant, Broken Arrow city, OK, USA:
Short answer: healthcare costs crowding out my paycheck. Premiums, deductibles, meds, and the quiet squeeze on hospital budgets that turns into short staffing and burnout. That’s the fire. Everything else is smoke. I’m a night-shift OR guy in Broken Arrow. I budget tight, send money to my mom in St. Catherine, and I still feel that monthly premium like a body check. Groceries and rent are annoying, sure, but the health bill line items make me clench my jaw. And when administrators start whispering about cuts, I hear it as fewer hands in the room and longer days. In this cool, brisk Oklahoma air, that’s the anxiety that sticks. What should Republican candidates focus on, if they actually want my respect: • Hit healthcare costs head-on - not slogans. Show how you lower premiums and deductibles for working people without gutting hospitals. If you can’t say it in plain English, I’m out. • Protect core services with receipts - cuts are fine if you can prove what stays standing. ERs, ORs,
Club for Growth endorses candidates who support lower taxes and less spending. How much does that endorsement matter to you?
Joseph Bertelsman, 37, Manufacturing Engineer, Raleigh city, NC, USA:
About a 3 out of 10. It signals low taxes and less spending, which I generally like, but I’ve seen that turn into cutting the shop lights and telling folks to work faster. Like I said before, a Trump nod moves more primary votes than this does. I care more about a local record on roads, training, and a clean budget. Their stamp is a sticker on the toolbox, not the torque spec in the work order.
Erica Gutierrez, 43, Stay-at-Home Parent, Rural, GA, USA:
Very little. A D.C. group name does not pay my bills. I vote by numbers, not stamps. • Show which tax goes down and how much per month. • No cuts to school, clinic, safety checks, or roads. • No new fees. No new debt. • Talk to local parents and workers, not TV. Last time we heard "lower taxes," our trash fee went up and classes got bigger. Not good. So that endorsement is maybe 5% for me. Record and budget are 95%. If "less spending" hits basics, I say no.
Randy Pena, 41, Plant Manager, Palm Coast city, FL, USA:
Short answer: not much. Call it a 2 out of 10. • It reads like a donor-class stamp, not a voter signal. Primary heat is tribal loyalty. This is spreadsheets-on-a-mailer. • Yeah, it hints they will not hike taxes. Fine. But down here we need drainage, grid hardening, workforce training. If the vibe is cut-everything-and-pray, hard pass. • Could be a tie-breaker if the candidate also shows a local plan with real numbers and is not a chaos act. Otherwise, background noise. • On a gray, rainy day like this, another PAC endorsement just feels like more inbox clutter. If you want my attention, show me how you keep roads open in a storm and crews trained without blowing the budget. The logo on your flyer does not move me.
In a Republican primary, what's MORE important: a candidate's fiscal conservatism record or their loyalty to Trump?
Billy Smith, 39, Unemployed Adult, Duluth city, MN, USA:
Short answer: loyalty to Trump wins a GOP primary right now. Folks treat it like a team jersey and clap for the loudest cheer. Fiscal conservatism only bites when the plow budget, potholes, and levy hit home, and most voters don’t weigh that in a primary. Me, I care more about the money side and junk fees, but I’m not the room they’re playing to. We’ll see.
Joseph Bertelsman, 37, Manufacturing Engineer, Raleigh city, NC, USA:
Loyalty to Trump. If we’re being honest, that’s the gatekeeper in most GOP primaries right now, and fiscal conservatism is background noise everyone claims until it hits their district. Crossing Trump is like starting a layup without releasing agent - you’re stuck before you even set the first ply. In the suburbs around here, taxes still move a few votes, but the endorsement and not poking the bear is what sets the jig. Not my favorite setup, but that’s the fixture holding the part.
Jerald Perezcruz, 50, Construction Manager, New York city, NY, USA:
Short answer? Trump loyalty is the ticket in a GOP primary right now. Folks treat it like a yes-or-no test. You flinch on him, they stop listening, even if your numbers are spotless. Me, I’m tired of the soap opera. Show me real fiscal discipline with receipts - no gimmicks, no magic math, no “cut taxes then blow up the deficit” routine. A lot of so-called fiscal conservatives talked tough and spent like crazy anyway. Loyalty to Trump tells me nothing about how you handle a budget or a payroll. So: • To win the primary: loyalty to Trump. • To govern like an adult: an honest fiscal record. Pick your poison. On a cool, gray NYC day, I care more about whether the trains run and bills stay paid than who kissed the ring.
About This Research
This study was conducted using Ditto synthetic voter research - 6 AI personas grounded in census data and behavioral research. Ditto's methodology has been validated by EY at 95% correlation with traditional polling. Results in minutes, not weeks.
Full study: View the complete research
